Recently the "natural" disasters in Indonesia and New Zealand (earthquake) have prompted people to ask whether they are acts of God's judgment because of human sins. I am no expert on this topic but here are my initial thoughts from a biblical perspective.
(1) We need to first remember that the Bible was written in a historical and culture context that was very different from ours. They did not have the knowledge of science that we have today. People like Abraham, Isaiah and Paul would have a worldview very different from ours. For example, their view of the creation story and the fall in Genesis would be very different. Today's question of whether we have a "young earth" would not have been their question. Likewise, I think the word "natural" in the phrase "natural disaster" might not make sense for them. My sense is that for them what we call "natural disaster" may not be natural to them. Floods, famine, plagues and indeed the rise and fall of nations are all ultimately beyond their control, and they know that God is ultimately the one who has control over these things. The same worldview is held by many peoples today, with the Western culture being an exception (although the world is changing rapidly with many non-Westerners taking on a somewhat Western worldview).
(2) I find that in the Old Testament people have two responses/explanations to (the so-called) natural disasters.
(i) They are God's punishment as a result of human rebellion. This is very often applied to God's (chosen) people in the ancient world. But it also applied to human rebellion in general, with the flood as a good example, and with the threat of the destruction of Nineveh in Jonah as another example.
(ii) They are not God's punishment. This is especially the case in Job. The ancient Israelites struggled with whether suffering (including suffering as a result of natural disasters, which Job also experienced) is the consequence of human sins. Job's friends have a view of retributive justice. But Job maintained his innocence. The prologue of Job attributes the source of evil to the devil. But the lesson for us all is that God is sovereign.
(3) The corollary of the above is that suffering can happen to both the righteous and the unrighteous, and God's people are to be faithful to God by acting justly and righteously and at the same time trust in God's faithfulness, love, righteousness and justice. The prophets speak against idolatry and social injustice, as well as God's judgment against human disobedience, especially on God's (chosen) people. But the prophets also complain about God's apparent injustice, with Jeremiah and Habakkuk being good examples.
(4) I wonder whether our (Western) dualistic mindset is being very unhelpful here.
On the one hand, there are those who think that everything should be taken spiritually. Thus the bushfire in Victoria last year, for example, was suggested by some to be God's judgment on human sin. That is, bushfire is a spiritual consequence of human sins, instead of a physical consequence of dry and windy weather. There are two problems here. (i) Romans 2 tells us that no-one can claim any moral superiority, whether we are Christian or not. No-one should judge another person. Only God can judge. He alone is the righteous Judge - and he does judge! Who are we to suggest that the people who suffered from the bushfire are under God's judgment and that we ourselves - who are sinners as well - are not under God's judgment? Peter says that God's judgment will start from the family of God. (ii) In any disaster there can potentially be innocent people, even if it is God's judgment. For example, God punish Israel when Jeremiah was the prophet. He was one of the many innocent people who suffered in the hands of the Babylonians. We cannot understand why it happened to them. But it did.
On the other hand there are those who think that everything should be interpreted according to natural causes. For example, a bushfire is a result of circumstances, namely, bad weather, long draught, etc. One can also say that the unusally bad bushfire was perhaps indirectly a result of human activities on climate change. All these should be taken seriously. But one must note that this natural-cause-and-effect thinking is quite Western. The biblical worldview seems to be that human actions (righteous and unrightoues acts; just and unjust acts and social systems) can have cosmic consequences. Indeed, the rejection of Jesus as the Messiah by the religious leaders in Jerusalem led to Jesus' judgment on the Temple, including the physical destruction of the Temple. The subsequent destruction of the Temple in AD 70 was not simply a consequence of Roman conquest, but a cosmic event in which the rebellion of God's people was met with God's just judgment. (But once again we must be careful not to apply this to the bushfire via the "spiritual consequence" path.)
In the final analysis, I think, we cannot have a one-size-fits-all explanation to natural disasters. It is in many ways a mystery. "I don't understand it all" is probably not a bad thing to bear in mind.
(5) What does it mean? Some suggestions when there is a natural disaster.
Do not judge the victims. Leave it with God to judge.
Love the victims and stand with them in solidarity by means of practical help.
Reflect on our own sins (including the sins of the Christian community), rather than the sins of others.
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